Retail Trends for 2022 and Beyond

As the Christmas shopping season continues and New Year’s is not far behind, our thoughts turn to the what’s next.  What is the future of retail?  The question is still on everyone’s mind and no one has answered it adequately.  That’s because we are not fortunetellers, but we try very hard to predict the future, in spite of our shortcomings.

This week I listened to a podcast from Dana Telsey, a retail expert I greatly admire.  She always says things that I think, “Gee, I wish I had said that, and so eloquently.”  She talked about the three Ps in understanding and predicting change in the retail marketplace:

1. Process
2. Purpose
3. Profit

I keep thinking about these words and continue to develop insights that are essential for an understanding of the future of retail.  Try it. Just think about the words and the application to your particular product, location, experience or store.  You will find you are a brilliant prognosticator!

Just for fun, I came up with my own “10 Trends for Retail” that are practical and may help you plan.  They are as follows:

1. Consolidations, bankruptcies and other market adjustments will continue until retail product, market supply and demand are equalized.  They are good for the industry as a whole, however painful they may be for affected entities.  The U.S. had too much unproductive space before the pandemic.
2. E-commerce and omni-channel selling of goods and services will continue.  These formats work hand in hand with stores.  They supply avenues to sell more goods!  In this realm, the consumer is king.  They have spoken loudly about their preference for convenience and choice. Things like BOPIS, curbside pickup, warehousing and other trends will continue because they are popular and help sell.
3. Retail THEATER and EXPERENTIAL RETAIL will drive successful locations.  It is time we stopped being lazy about our shopping experiences.
4. Great locations will continue to thrive.  A-mall location will evolve into even more mixed-use destinations.
5. The opportunity for development and deepening of our outdoor/lifestyle formats has never been stronger. We must recognize and acknowledge the essential change in post-pandemic behavior.  Consumers require more space indoors and have a preference for being outdoors if possible.
6. Discounters and “Dollar” stores provide the biggest growth opportunity currently.  This is not permanent. These types of retailers always thrive in a recession.  (Yes, we are in a recession!)
7. Cause and purpose are missions to always keep in mind in retail.  Millennials prefer products that offer some good to the world.
8. “Value” is another concept to understand and build into your mission.  It does not mean cheap; it means giving the consumer something she treasurers as she shops.
9. Exurban and suburban locations supply the best opportunities for growth.  Keep this in mind as you develop and expand.
10. Shifting demographics and the concomitant shifts in Process, Purpose and Profit will drive retail development.

Keep these prognostications in mind as you move along with your day, today and tomorrow.  Here’s hoping they will help you bring joy and success to you!

The Best Job I Ever Had

                

Yesterday on the ABC television network, the entire day was devoted to programming of the Academy Awards.  This is always one of the most coveted days of the year for me, having grown up in the entertainment business and living in Beverly Hills.  I love the stories and the glitz and glamour.  The dresses!!  The hair, the make-up, the shoes! 

This year is especially exciting since the Academy Museum is opening, honoring the legend and legacy of Hollywood films.  I am completely humbled and honored to have conducted the market and financial feasibility study for the museum, as it underwent many twists and turns on its road to being born.  This is a re-blog of an article I wrote in 2018 and I think it is appropriate today.

“About 16 years ago, I got a call from a perspective client, a newly hired director from the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, asking if I would be interested in conducting some market research for a new attraction/museum themed on the Academy Awards.  Would I?!?!  I had been the one lucky enough to do the work for the Dolby Theater at Hollywood & Highland where the ceremony takes place, so it seemed a good fit and logical that I continue on to do the museum feasibility.  But my joy, my heart, for Hollywood, no one knew that!  My family had always been in the entertainment business, with my father tangentially involved on the business side, having been a pioneer in the cable television industry.   And my aunt was always working for this or that movie star as an executive assistant.  I was lucky enough to visit the backlot of 20^th Century Fox before it was Century City!  I spent countless hours watching movies being filmed, then sitting in theaters watching them roll by me on the big screen. 

Would I be interested?  Heck, yea!!

Since that time, I have been the consultant called upon to do the background market research, analysis and financial projections for the site selection, sizing and operation of museum.  I learned a thing or two during those years.  I gained a deep knowledge of large museums and what keeps them thriving; I learned how an endowment can shrink during a deflation; I learned that money earmarked to never-be-touched has a way of disappearing in hard times.  And I learned about the conundrum of keeping things fresh so that resident visitors will keep returning time and again.  I am thankful that my job always changes and that I always learn, no matter the engagement.

Over the years, we have wrestled with all the issues associated with new development including disagreements about what it should look like, what its mission should be, where it should be sited, who is its targeted audience (please don’t say everyone!), and what’s the best way to keep the project on-time and on-budget.  To be clear, these issues are complex and are made more difficult when there are many masters to serve.  Still, when the project is to reflect the points of view, hopes, dreams, and legacies of America’s most important cultural export, cinema, careful consideration must be given to each one. “

Sex, Drugs and Rock n’ Roll – All Over Again!

Last week’s Sunday New York Times reported that as more adults over 50 are vaccinated, and as new rules from the CDC emerge, the renaissance of Boomers leisure-fun times are loosening prohibitions in social behavior.

This market segment is still huge!  Currently, approximately 74 million Americans make up the Boomer category, (57 to 75 years), which is approximately 22% of the U.S. population:

BOOMER AGE – 2020 ESTIMATES
Age Range	Population
55-59	21.9
60-64	20.6
65-69	17.5
70-74	14
Total	74.o
Source:  U. S. Census Bureau, Statistica & JB Research Company

Many Boomers are still affluent.  According to the most current U.S. Census, “Current Population Census 2020,” households in the 55 to 64 group earn $91,687 annually.  This compares to the national median of $86,631. 

BOOMER MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME – 2020 ESTIMATES
Age Range	Median Household Income
45-54	$105,047
55-64	$91,687
65-74	$74,71
U.S. Overall	$86,631
Source: U. S. Census Bureau 2020, Current Population Census and JB Research Company

Further, Boomers as a whole are the top earners among United States households.  They own 53.2% ($59.96 trillion) of US wealth.  That’s twice the $28.5 trillion that Gen X holds and 10 times more than Millennials, who hold just 4.6% ($5.19 trillion) of US wealth, as reported by Bloomberg, citing recent Federal Reserve data.

Now, with almost 50% of Americans 65 and over fully vaccinated, older Americans are traveling, attending parties, going to bars and hosting dinner parties.  They are sitting by their swimming pools with friends, drinking fruity cocktails and premium wine, and exploring the world once again. 

Besides foretelling what’s to come when all Americans who wish to get a vaccine have received one, this party-hearty attitude could signal a roaring 20-ish kind of atmosphere for the foreseeable future.  Airline travel is up; retail sales and nonfarm payrolls increased by 379,000 workers in February; and the unemployment rate was 6.2%. Most of the hiring came in the hospitality sector, which saw 355,000 new jobs.  This segment is roaring back!   The national Retail Federation predicts that 2021 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants – will grow between 6.5% and 8.2% over 2020 to between $4.3 trillion and $4.4 trillion. That could top 2020’s growth of 6.7% (despite the pandemic), which broke the previous record of 6.3% set in 2004. 

My husband and I are fully vaccinated.  We have seen our grandkids a bunch of times now including visiting poolside on a family vacation. 

 

Encouraging News From Some of Our Favorite Brick and Mortar Shops

Although these are challenging times for bricks and mortar retail, some are thriving.  To put this into context, essential and off-price retailers tend to thrive in a downtown.  But we want to highlight a few outside these categories.

We aren’t doing too bad in 2021.   Despite record sales drops in most retail categories except essential and off-price goods, U.S. retailers have announced 3,199 store openings and 2,548 closures, according to Coresight Research.  In 2019, retailers announced 4,548 openings, up from 3,747 in 2018. So far, in 2021, openings are already tracking to top each year prior.

Some retailers expanding currently include:

• Aldi: The German discount grocer is expanding with 100 new U.S. stores in 2021, Locations are primarily  located in Arizona, Florida, California and the Northeast.

Click Here to Read “Aldi U.S. CEO Jason Hart says pandemic hasn’t slowed growth plans“

• American Eagle Outfitters: The young Millennial retailer continues to focus on its intimates brand, Aerie, and plans to expand from about 350 stores to approximately 400 locations by the end of this year. In total 500 to 600 Aerie stores are anticipated by 2023.

• Fabletics: The activewear fashion brand founded by Kate Hudson disclosed that it will open 24 new stores in 2021, expanding its brick-and-mortar presence to 74 U.S. locations by year-end.

Click to Read “How Kate Hudson Created a Million-Member Fitness Movement with Fabletics“

• Five Below: The tween and teen retailer remains one of several  specialty retailers expanding on brick-and-mortar units. Five Below plans to open 175 new stores in 2021, up from 120 last year, and will enter two new states — Utah and New Mexico — as its footprint expands to 40 states. The company ended the year with more than 1, 050 stores.

• Lidl: Lidl US is expanding along the East Coast. The German grocer plans to open 50 new stores by the end of 2021, with locations in Delaware, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Virginia.

• Sephora: In the largest store expansion plan in its  history the global beauty giant will open more than 60 freestanding stores.  The brand will also open 200 shop-in-shop locations in Kohl’s stores this year. 

Click to read “How Sephora is Thriving Amid a Retail Crisis“

• Sprouts Farmers Market: The organic grocer is planning 20 stores this year, including 10 in the California.

• Target: The brand announced it is accelerating new store openings, with 30 to 40 stores in the next couple of years. It also expects to enlarge its store remodel program this year and complete approximately 150 in time for the holidays 2021. It plans to remodel more than 200 stores a year beginning in 2022. 

Click to Read “Target Adds 750 Grocery Items To BOPIS Offerings“

• Ulta Beauty: The beauty giant’s plans for this year include 40 new stores  and 21 remodels or relocations.

While these expansions may not save the industry, we are happy just to have a few bright spots on our retail horizon.  So let’s not call 2021 the demise of retail.  A wait and see attitude may bring more plans for expansion and new formats in out-of-home experiences. 

I for one will be hitting the pavement hard as soon as safety is declared!!

Trends After COVID-19

We are all waiting to get back to it! 

I have never been so anxious to get out of the house, see a movie, have lunch with friends, go on a vacation, hug my grandchildren, and just plain have some out-of-home fun!!!  Many of our clients are wondering how this will all happen when we’re free to mingle again, and what will be some of the lasting trends.  As such, we did an overview of six trends or values in the leisure and entertainment industries that we believe are here to stay in our behavior as a result of the COVID confinement. 

1. Value for the Money

According to a 2020 Kinsey report of 75,000 consumers surveyed around the world, “value for money” was the highest rated purchase driver, being rated number one by 63% of people surveyed.  The post-pandemic customer wants to feel they have made a smart purchase decision, regardless of the sector, be it retail, entertainment, or health care.  This value is positively associated with digital information and purchasing ease. 

2.  Localization and Ease of Buying

Since consumers are being forced to “stay at home” or close to home, and as distant and foreign travel has dropped precipitously, consumers value easy access and purchase experiences for all types of goods and services close to home.  Again, this points to the need for a seamless online experience for potential guests in the form of social media and information technology associated with purchasing, advertising and promotion.

3. Staycations

Hand-in-hand with localization of goods and services, Staycations are valued in this down economy.  This trend always emerges in recessions and/or depressions.  New attractions that present an outstanding experience will likely be highly valued after the economy rebounds.  Prices must be carefully set to allow resource-strapped consumers to enjoy themselves without breaking their bank!

4. Digitalization

Digitalization has accelerated as a consequence of the pandemic, opening opportunities for the attraction industry.  Operational strategies for delivering an experience for the customer to learn about and purchase admission, other amenities (such as merchandise and concert tickets) as well as other events must be developed and exploited.  Adopting digitalization as a marketing platform with personalized experiences based on the guest’s past behavior and purchase history will be of paramount importance to attractions and retail.

5. Need for Safety and Trust in Brands

In the McKinsey global survey, personal safety was ranked as important by 40% of respondents.  This is coupled with trust in the brand.  Brands must deliver on their promise with a sense of purpose and meeting the safety needs of both customers and employees.  Also on the rise in consumer expectations is the commitment to environmental and social policies.  The technology and backstory/concept of the brand should be front and center in the digital and collateral materials developed, highlighting the creation of a safe and attractive place.  Retail, leisure and entertainment brands should advertise commitment to the environment and public health policies.

6. Surge in Some Activities

Initially, there will be a huge surge in doing the things we’ve missed most.  Then demand will stabilize, but we must be ready for the onslaught of business when the world normalizes.

According to Datassentials, 2021 January report, here are the rank-ordered activities we can’t wait to get back to post COVID life:

Source: Dataessentials

In summary, we believe our post-COVID world will be a different place than the one we knew before 2020.  Addressing the obvious and subtle shifts in consumer wants and needs will determine future success in the leisure and entertainment industries.

Nimble, Responsive, Proactive, Creative, Woke!

I am not in any way discounting the dangerous and dire straights we are in these days with the global pandemic and how it is affecting our health and economy.  But it occurred to me when I was not doing anything this weekend (which happens a lot these days) that we are a nation of innovators, and that most of the tech innovations and discovers came from the U. S.  If ever there was a time to “think outside the box” (why do we use that expression?  Why don’t we think outside the parallelogram or the rhombus?) it is now.

Businesses are closing down by the hundreds.  How to fix this?  What can we do?  And just as I was musing/obsessing about this, we drove by a billboard on the 101 in San Francisco for Salesforces’ new product “Work.com”.  Full disclosure, my son works for Salesforce, so I am not completely objective, but my thought was “that’s brilliant”  Work.com, is described as “providing all the latest thinking, models, advice and all new work.com solutions.” Some of the things you can do with the new system are quoted as follows:

• Get products to support your return to the workplace
• Find thought leadership content from renowned experts
• Access all the latest COVID-19 data
• Learn through inspiring stories
• Extend with guidance from our ecosystem

Brilliant!  A solution, instead of a worry or obsession.  I began to look for other exciting new solutions to our current state and I found another.  The whole movie industry has been turned on its head, with the closure of cinemas.  New releases and summer blockbusters, so important to viewership at theaters, are being scheduled for first run on television private services.  One proactive solution, the reemergence of drive-in theaters!  Anyone over 30 remembers going to the drive in first with your parents when you were a kid, and then with your friends as you got older and were able to drive.  I remember getting in the trunk at the drive-in gate, with some of my friends, so we didn’t have to pay as much.  Morning Consult provides an amazing array of data on topics important to all of us.  Their entertainment sector report this morning presented data from another completely nimble solution, the return of the drive-in movie theater.

This gorgeous picture is an aerial drone view of a temporary drive-in movie theater at the Rose Bowl stadium, known for its spectacular Fourth of July fireworks which were canceled this year to reduce large public gatherings due to COVID-19 concerns. The latest polling of 2000 adults over 18 in the United States shows the following fascinating results:

Results indicate that the majority of Americans (55%) are interested in returning to the theater in a safe fashion.  The bravest is Gen Z, (aged 10 to 25 years of age) including 66 percent of Gen Z adults. Adding to the potential draw of the drive-in is that audiences are 12 percentage points more likely to be comfortable with watching a film outdoors than inside, according to separate Morning Consult polling.

Drive-in or picnic style movies are simple to set-up and earn revenue on food and beverage.  Some drive-ins have even tried offering upscale sandwiches, picnic baskets, small-batch microbrewery beers, and designer wine brands curated by a sommelier.

For commercial real estate owners, business is not good right now.  But what if we thought new:  Let’s host art shows, turn our parking lots into drive-ins (Walmart is doing this!), offer our locations for COVID testing!  Let’s have a “can do” attitude and turn around our dire situation right now! Maybe we can even give our clients and customers something to smile about!

Let me know what you’re doing creatively in your spare time.  We always love to hear from you and right now, nothing is more important than sharing ideas and innovations!

The Rumors of Retail’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated – Who Will Win, Who Will Lose?

A new poll conducted by Chain Store Age asked about the best customer service retailers across 160 retail sectors.  The survey was based on more than 20,000 customers who have made purchases, used services, or researched data about the company from 2017 to 2020.

The Top 3 made me laugh because… well, look at who they are:

 

1. Disney Cruise Lines
2. Neiman Marcus
3. The Ritz-Carlton

These top three companies are high-end with customers residing in the top income tiers.  Besides the irony of Cruise lines in the age of Covid, a department store that recently declared bankruptcy, and a hotel chain when few are traveling, one of the most important customer service behaviors of these examples includes treating customers well.

The other seven retailers noted below in rank order, appeal to a broad demographic, several in the mid-market category:

1. Edward Jones
2. Chick-fil-A
3. L. Bean
4. National Storage Affiliates
5. Embassy Suites
6. Publix
7. Beau Coup (Wedding, Baby Shower and other “Significant Event” Party Favors)

While we understand that many businesses in the middle to moderate income space equate cheaper prices with less sales associates and very little customer service, that won’t work in these very competitive retail times.

As an example of doing it right, number 1, Disney, began calling their customers “guests” early on in their corporate culture.  The difference between a guest and a customer is clearly shown in the simple definition of the two words:

• A customer is a person or organization that buys goods or services from a store or business.
• A guest is a person who is invited to visit the home of or take part in a function organized by another.

When #2 ranked Neiman shook up its executive suite in 2019, Scott Emmons, who led the company’s “Innovation Lab” wrote as a parting statement:  “…we know that retailers are far from delivering what they must to guard against doomsday scenarios for physical stores.  After 16 years working for a top luxury retailer, I can say with confidence that traditional players in the US and abroad are not innovating the right way.  Processes are broken, execution is too slow, politics stalls decision-making and resources are too scarce.”

Retail is a microcosm of the culture it lives in.  One of the first steps in solving a problem is to recognize there is a problem!  The wrong way to be a stellar retailer I liken to Trump, who’s following has fallen precipitously in recent weeks. To be successful, retailers must aspire to be good enough for the majority of the population who now demand to be treated well, whether shopping at a Walmart or at a Sur La Tab.  These consumers are driving the future of retail, and on a larger scale, the future of the United States!  As we begin to thaw from the current months of lockdown and America returns to stores, restaurants, museums, and travel, the CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE will determine the winners and losers at the full spectrum of retail.  And while many of our favorite brands may not be left standing, those who continue to sharpen their “experience” skills will come out on top.

Do you agree or do you believe out-of-home shopping is gone forever?  Let us know your assessment.  We always love to hear your view!

 

 

And Just Like that……Everything Changes!

These days, my blog just seems to write itself. Experiences and new ways of accomplishing almost everything, from washing clothes to shopping, are the norm. But as humans, it takes an exceptionally long time to change our ways so that all our new activities feel stiff and unfamiliar. Take for example, shopping, my passion! Here in Napa County, we are in Phase Two A of the process. That means many retail locations can reopen, except ones that involve person-to-person contact like salons, nail parlors, gyms, and spas.

About a week ago, my husband and I went to the University of California San Francisco hospital, where he had a follow-up appointment for a recent health scare. Since no one is allowed in the hospital other than the patient, I had to occupy myself with walking around nearby.

UCSF is in Mission Bay, as is the beautiful new Chase Center Warriors and concert arena. This venue opened in September 2019 at a cost of half a billion dollars. Besides the 18,000-seat arena, the project boasts 580,000 square feet of office space and 100,000 square feet of restaurant and retail space. Additionally, a new light rail system connecting the arena to downtown is also proposed, at a cost of $1.0 billion. The MANICA designed arena opened with a Metallica concert playing to a sold-out crowd.

Huge investment full of vision and promise. A community gathering space that would be alive at least 250 nights each year. The one and only first-class arena for concerts in San Francisco. A new space for artists to add to their tour routes! We attended the Sara Bareilles concert in January and though the house was set in the concert-configuration at 10,000-capacity, it seemed like we were onstage with her.

Here is what it looks like now:

Eerie. A boarded-up ghost town cordoned off to all seeking to visit. The many restaurants were either not yet operational when the Pandemic began or closed now because of it. A special favorite of Northern Californians is Gotts, a local hamburger and milk shake joint that now offers sushi and other fancy stuff. I almost cried when I saw this:

   

How could this happen? Who could have predicted this devastating blow to a brand-new entertainment venue in one of the best entertainment regions in the world?

And just like that, everything changed again! Last week, stores were allowed to open in Napa County, where I live. I was thrilled. It was advertised that the Napa Premium Outlets were not yet open, but that the Vacaville Premium Outlets were (both Simon Properties). I drove the 35 minutes to the Outlets and was greeted by a very spotty opening sequence. Most stores were still closed, and signs disclosed they would be open next week or the week after. The few stores that were open look like this:

One or two customers in each shop.  The stock was plentiful because it has been sitting in a warehouse for two or three months, awaiting opening of the stores . I felt particularly sorry for a new William Sonoma Factory store that just opened for the first time, with no customers in its beautiful store:

I have PTSD from trying to keep up with the world. It’s like when you have your first baby, or worse yet, your second baby, and just when you think you have it nailed, their behavior changes, they start sleeping less or more; they don’t like the food today that they loved yesterday; they cry endlessly for no reason, and you want to run away. But of course, you don’t, except for maybe a minute or two when you lock yourself in the bathroom and sob for, which is all the time you are allowed to yourself as a new parent. That is what I feel like today. I want certainty; I want routine; I want to get on a plane and go on my summer vacation; I want to see my grandbabies; I want to kiss my kids! I will just keep muddling along, as I imagine we all will. And I will keep writing blogs that someday may seem like the poetry you wrote when you were a stoned college kid.

What are you doing to stay sane? Share with us your tips for slogging through your days.

It’s the Throughput, Stupid 1/

Someone very famous once told me, “Jill, always remember you’re a numbers gal.”  Every entertainment-infused real estate development has industry standard numbers that equate to profitability.  All retail, dining, entertainment attractions, public assembly, hospitality, sports and cultural facilities follow set rules.  So, for those of you who aren’t throwing in the towel yet, here are some simple rules and some complications, based on a couple of very simple formulas:

1. Annual Attendance = Gross Market Size x Market Penetration Rate
2. Design Day Attendance = the Percent of Annual Attendance seen on any of the 15 to 20 busiest days of the year.
3. Peak On-Site = the Length of Stay relative to the Period Open, accounting for arrival and departure patterns.
4. Gross Revenue = Annual Attendance x Per Capita Revenue for Admission, Retail, Food & Beverage, Merchandise, and Ancillary Sources of Revenue
5. Net Operating Income or EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) = Gross Revenue minus Projected Expenses for each year the project is open.  The formula normally refers to a stabilized year.
6. Warranted Investment = EBDITA x Industry Standard Years to Payback. (For non-entertainment real estate projects this number is the basis for the capitalization rate.)

In my experience, the throughput’s the driver, followed by per caps. Since throughput is being curtailed by up to 75% in some industries including theme parks, movies, and restaurants, this is a major issue.

Therefore, any entertainment real estate project hoping to make it through to the other side (wherever that lands) must look to increase per capita or lower development and/or operating costs.  That’s a tall order.

Another way to keep NOI thriving is through development of other sources of business, in other words, diversification.  Disney is doing a particularly good job:  an example, they will be releasing the digital version of “Hamilton” with the original Broadway case on Disney + within the next 60 days.  Theme parks are being decimated so the company is diversifying into creative and original digital offerings.

I don’t really have any easy answer because this is an evolving situation that changes daily.  What I can say will absolute certainty is that leaving out necessary planning and development steps will result in failure.  During the last recession, we had a few clients who didn’t plan enough parking for design day on-site needs, to save money.  And sadly, they had to fix this after the fact, spending millions of dollars of cap ex in subsequent years.

There is lots of work to do to create the new business model.  My clients and friends should be working on this right now!  What are you doing?  How are you developing new capital and operating models?  Let us know, and together we can save our industry!

1/ Throughput is the annual number of guests visiting a project on a given day, month, week, or year.

 

 

Musings From a Bored Feasibility Consultant

My practice lives and dies with innovation and optimism.  With most clients and friends scared to death about what this crisis will bring when it is over, or whether it will ever be over, my normally optimistic client base is taking a nap.  They are shut down and not practicing good old American ingenuity.

I have lived through many downturns and booms, a litany of business cycles.  My space in the entertainment development world falls between the idea and execution. Is this idea crazy?  Does it have legs?  Can I afford to develop it?  Where will I get development funds?  Am I nuts to be thinking this right now?  These are some of the questions my practice is hired to consider.

In all cases, I provide one of the following answers:

1. Brilliant idea. Let’s do some preliminary testing.
2. Hmmmm, I think that’s been done before, but maybe we can improve on the existing model.
3. I like it, but I really think the idea needs more development on your part, or if you like, we can help you move it along.
4. That is the dumbest idea I have ever heard. Save your money, don’t hire me, or if you’ve already hired me, you should fire me!

A couple examples of the ill-though-out ideas:

• A large INDOOR entertainment center on the beachfront of a major East coast resort.  The branding strategy: It’s a beautiful beach day, let’s all head inside!
• A 100,000 square foot museum at a major Indian casino in the U.S. with the theme “The slaughter of the tribe by the White man.”  (Footnote: The gamblers at the resort are 95% White.)
• A major entertainment company’s decision to disallow wine at a park in France.
• The decision to build two competing 20,000-seat amphitheaters across the highway from each other in a major Orange Co. California city.

But happily, more of my practice involves ideas that have you smacking your forehead and saying, “Why didn’t I think of that?”!  Some examples:

American Girl Place (built and wildly successful),

Academy of Motion Pictures Museum (to open year’s end 2020),

Hollywood and Highland (the initial plan didn’t follow our advice);

Sony Metreon (also, didn’t follow our advice);

A new hospitality/retail/dining/entertainment/ development in Mecca, the Hajj (they didn’t hire us:  I wouldn’t have either!);

A mixed-use sports and entertainment-infused $1.0 billion development in downtown Edmonton (The Oilers got 60% of their Phase One development funds from our numbers, the first time ever a sports venue received public funding in the province):

Maybe soon we will have a few new brilliant ideas to report to you.  Until that time, stay safe, well, healthy and hopefully, not too bored!