Category Archives: The Market

 The Rumors of Retail’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated – Who Will Win, Who Will Lose?

A new poll conducted by Chain Store Age asked about the best customer service retailers across 160 retail sectors.  The survey was based on more than 20,000 customers who have made purchases, used services, or researched data about the company from 2017 to 2020.

The Top 3 made me laugh because… well, look at who they are:

 

  1. Disney Cruise Lines
  2. Neiman Marcus
  3. The Ritz-Carlton

These top three companies are high-end with customers residing in the top income tiers.  Besides the irony of Cruise lines in the age of Covid, a department store that recently declared bankruptcy, and a hotel chain when few are traveling, one of the most important customer service behaviors of these examples includes treating customers well.

The other seven retailers noted below in rank order, appeal to a broad demographic, several in the mid-market category:

  1. Edward Jones
  2. Chick-fil-A
  3. L. Bean
  4. National Storage Affiliates
  5. Embassy Suites
  6. Publix
  7. Beau Coup (Wedding, Baby Shower and other “Significant Event” Party Favors)

While we understand that many businesses in the middle to moderate income space equate cheaper prices with less sales associates and very little customer service, that won’t work in these very competitive retail times.

As an example of doing it right, number 1, Disney, began calling their customers “guests” early on in their corporate culture.  The difference between a guest and a customer is clearly shown in the simple definition of the two words:

  • A customer is a person or organization that buys goods or services from a store or business.
  • A guest is a person who is invited to visit the home of or take part in a function organized by another.

When #2 ranked Neiman shook up its executive suite in 2019, Scott Emmons, who led the company’s “Innovation Lab” wrote as a parting statement:  “…we know that retailers are far from delivering what they must to guard against doomsday scenarios for physical stores.  After 16 years working for a top luxury retailer, I can say with confidence that traditional players in the US and abroad are not innovating the right way.  Processes are broken, execution is too slow, politics stalls decision-making and resources are too scarce.”

Retail is a microcosm of the culture it lives in.  One of the first steps in solving a problem is to recognize there is a problem!  The wrong way to be a stellar retailer I liken to Trump, who’s following has fallen precipitously in recent weeks. To be successful, retailers must aspire to be good enough for the majority of the population who now demand to be treated well, whether shopping at a Walmart or at a Sur La Tab.  These consumers are driving the future of retail, and on a larger scale, the future of the United States!  As we begin to thaw from the current months of lockdown and America returns to stores, restaurants, museums, and travel, the CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE will determine the winners and losers at the full spectrum of retail.  And while many of our favorite brands may not be left standing, those who continue to sharpen their “experience” skills will come out on top.

Do you agree or do you believe out-of-home shopping is gone forever?  Let us know your assessment.  We always love to hear your view!

 

 

And Just Like that……Everything Changes!

These days, my blog just seems to write itself. Experiences and new ways of accomplishing almost everything, from washing clothes to shopping, are the norm. But as humans, it takes an exceptionally long time to change our ways so that all our new activities feel stiff and unfamiliar. Take for example, shopping, my passion! Here in Napa County, we are in Phase Two A of the process. That means many retail locations can reopen, except ones that involve person-to-person contact like salons, nail parlors, gyms, and spas.

About a week ago, my husband and I went to the University of California San Francisco hospital, where he had a follow-up appointment for a recent health scare. Since no one is allowed in the hospital other than the patient, I had to occupy myself with walking around nearby.

UCSF is in Mission Bay, as is the beautiful new Chase Center Warriors and concert arena. This venue opened in September 2019 at a cost of half a billion dollars. Besides the 18,000-seat arena, the project boasts 580,000 square feet of office space and 100,000 square feet of restaurant and retail space. Additionally, a new light rail system connecting the arena to downtown is also proposed, at a cost of $1.0 billion. The MANICA designed arena opened with a Metallica concert playing to a sold-out crowd.

Huge investment full of vision and promise. A community gathering space that would be alive at least 250 nights each year. The one and only first-class arena for concerts in San Francisco. A new space for artists to add to their tour routes! We attended the Sara Bareilles concert in January and though the house was set in the concert-configuration at 10,000-capacity, it seemed like we were onstage with her.

Here is what it looks like now:

Eerie. A boarded-up ghost town cordoned off to all seeking to visit. The many restaurants were either not yet operational when the Pandemic began or closed now because of it. A special favorite of Northern Californians is Gotts, a local hamburger and milk shake joint that now offers sushi and other fancy stuff. I almost cried when I saw this:

   

How could this happen? Who could have predicted this devastating blow to a brand-new entertainment venue in one of the best entertainment regions in the world?

And just like that, everything changed again! Last week, stores were allowed to open in Napa County, where I live. I was thrilled. It was advertised that the Napa Premium Outlets were not yet open, but that the Vacaville Premium Outlets were (both Simon Properties). I drove the 35 minutes to the Outlets and was greeted by a very spotty opening sequence. Most stores were still closed, and signs disclosed they would be open next week or the week after. The few stores that were open look like this:

One or two customers in each shop.  The stock was plentiful because it has been sitting in a warehouse for two or three months, awaiting opening of the stores . I felt particularly sorry for a new William Sonoma Factory store that just opened for the first time, with no customers in its beautiful store:

I have PTSD from trying to keep up with the world. It’s like when you have your first baby, or worse yet, your second baby, and just when you think you have it nailed, their behavior changes, they start sleeping less or more; they don’t like the food today that they loved yesterday; they cry endlessly for no reason, and you want to run away. But of course, you don’t, except for maybe a minute or two when you lock yourself in the bathroom and sob for, which is all the time you are allowed to yourself as a new parent. That is what I feel like today. I want certainty; I want routine; I want to get on a plane and go on my summer vacation; I want to see my grandbabies; I want to kiss my kids! I will just keep muddling along, as I imagine we all will. And I will keep writing blogs that someday may seem like the poetry you wrote when you were a stoned college kid.

What are you doing to stay sane? Share with us your tips for slogging through your days.

It’s the Throughput, Stupid 1/

Someone very famous once told me, “Jill, always remember you’re a numbers gal.”  Every entertainment-infused real estate development has industry standard numbers that equate to profitability.  All retail, dining, entertainment attractions, public assembly, hospitality, sports and cultural facilities follow set rules.  So, for those of you who aren’t throwing in the towel yet, here are some simple rules and some complications, based on a couple of very simple formulas:

  1. Annual Attendance = Gross Market Size x Market Penetration Rate
  2. Design Day Attendance = the Percent of Annual Attendance seen on any of the 15 to 20 busiest days of the year.
  3. Peak On-Site = the Length of Stay relative to the Period Open, accounting for arrival and departure patterns.
  4. Gross Revenue = Annual Attendance x Per Capita Revenue for Admission, Retail, Food & Beverage, Merchandise, and Ancillary Sources of Revenue
  5. Net Operating Income or EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) = Gross Revenue minus Projected Expenses for each year the project is open.  The formula normally refers to a stabilized year.
  6. Warranted Investment = EBDITA x Industry Standard Years to Payback. (For non-entertainment real estate projects this number is the basis for the capitalization rate.)

In my experience, the throughput’s the driver, followed by per caps. Since throughput is being curtailed by up to 75% in some industries including theme parks, movies, and restaurants, this is a major issue.

Therefore, any entertainment real estate project hoping to make it through to the other side (wherever that lands) must look to increase per capita or lower development and/or operating costs.  That’s a tall order.

Another way to keep NOI thriving is through development of other sources of business, in other words, diversification.  Disney is doing a particularly good job:  an example, they will be releasing the digital version of “Hamilton” with the original Broadway case on Disney + within the next 60 days.  Theme parks are being decimated so the company is diversifying into creative and original digital offerings.

I don’t really have any easy answer because this is an evolving situation that changes daily.  What I can say will absolute certainty is that leaving out necessary planning and development steps will result in failure.  During the last recession, we had a few clients who didn’t plan enough parking for design day on-site needs, to save money.  And sadly, they had to fix this after the fact, spending millions of dollars of cap ex in subsequent years.

There is lots of work to do to create the new business model.  My clients and friends should be working on this right now!  What are you doing?  How are you developing new capital and operating models?  Let us know, and together we can save our industry!

1/ Throughput is the annual number of guests visiting a project on a given day, month, week, or year.

 

 

Musings From a Bored Feasibility Consultant  

My practice lives and dies with innovation and optimism.  With most clients and friends scared to death about what this crisis will bring when it is over, or whether it will ever be over, my normally optimistic client base is taking a nap.  They are shut down and not practicing good old American ingenuity.

I have lived through many downturns and booms, a litany of business cycles.  My space in the entertainment development world falls between the idea and execution. Is this idea crazy?  Does it have legs?  Can I afford to develop it?  Where will I get development funds?  Am I nuts to be thinking this right now?  These are some of the questions my practice is hired to consider.

In all cases, I provide one of the following answers:

  1. Brilliant idea. Let’s do some preliminary testing.
  2. Hmmmm, I think that’s been done before, but maybe we can improve on the existing model.
  3. I like it, but I really think the idea needs more development on your part, or if you like, we can help you move it along.
  4. That is the dumbest idea I have ever heard. Save your money, don’t hire me, or if you’ve already hired me, you should fire me!

A couple examples of the ill-though-out ideas:

  • A large INDOOR entertainment center on the beachfront of a major East coast resort.  The branding strategy: It’s a beautiful beach day, let’s all head inside!
  • A 100,000 square foot museum at a major Indian casino in the U.S. with the theme “The slaughter of the tribe by the White man.”  (Footnote: The gamblers at the resort are 95% White.)
  • A major entertainment company’s decision to disallow wine at a park in France.
  • The decision to build two competing 20,000-seat amphitheaters across the highway from each other in a major Orange Co. California city.

But happily, more of my practice involves ideas that have you smacking your forehead and saying, “Why didn’t I think of that?”!  Some examples:

American Girl Place (built and wildly successful),

Academy of Motion Pictures Museum (to open year’s end 2020),

Hollywood and Highland (the initial plan didn’t follow our advice);

Sony Metreon (also, didn’t follow our advice);

A new hospitality/retail/dining/entertainment/ development in Mecca, the Hajj (they didn’t hire us:  I wouldn’t have either!);

A mixed-use sports and entertainment-infused $1.0 billion development in downtown Edmonton (The Oilers got 60% of their Phase One development funds from our numbers, the first time ever a sports venue received public funding in the province):

Maybe soon we will have a few new brilliant ideas to report to you.  Until that time, stay safe, well, healthy and hopefully, not too bored!

 

 

 

 

 

Some Bright Spots on the Jobs Horizon

While we’re all at home doing a bit of R&R and obsessively watching the news (oh, maybe that’s just me) for any glimmer of hope, I found some good news.  While the GDP shrank by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020 and unemployment nationally is upward of 16%, there is plenty to worry about. 

But some companies are expanding and hiring like mad! These are the frontline businesses that need to ramp up workers to meet the short-term growing demand for their products and services, according to a report by Linkedin.    Here is a list of some of these growing companies:

Upwards of 51,000 Employees 

25,000 to 50,000 Employees 

  • CVS Health is hiring 50,000 employees to serve in various capacities across its business.
  • Dollar General says it’s looking to add 50,000 employees by the end of April.
  • Walmart is hiring 50,000 workers for its distribution and fulfillment centers.
  • FedEx is hiring 35,000 people for essential roles.
  • Allied Universal is hiring more than 30,000 people for open positions.
  • Ace Hardware is hiring 30,000 people to work in its stores nationwide.
  • Pizza Hut is hiring 30,000 permanent employees to serve as drivers, shift leaders, cooks and managers.
  • Lowe’s is hiring 30,000 employees
  • Dollar Tree, which is also the parent company of Family Dollar, is hiring 25,000 workers for its stores and distribution centers.
  • Walgreens is hiring 25,000 employees for permanent and temporary roles.

10,000 to 20,000 Employees 

400 to  9,999 employees 

  •  Office Depot is hiring up to 8,000 people to be seasonal retail        associates.
  • PepsiCo says it plans to hire 6,000 employees over the coming months.
  • AdventHealth is hiring more than 5,000 people to fill open roles.
  • TNG Retail Services is looking to hire 5,000 people for hourly roles.
  • Amwell is hiring people to fill 5,000 positions across the country.
  • Nestle USA is hiring more than 5,000 people.
  • Lockheed Martin is hiring more than 5,000 people to fill open positions.
  • Tractor Supply Company is hiring more than 5,000 people at its stores and distribution centers.
  • Rite Aid is hiring 5,000 people to work in their stores and distribution centers.
  • Big Lots is hiring 5,000 people to help meet increased demand.
  • Outschool is looking to hire 5,000 teachers to start offering online classes.
  • Providence St Josephs is hiring people for more than 3,000 positions.
  • Bon Secours Mercy Health is hiring nearly 3,000 people for open positions.
  • United Wholesale Mortgage plans to hire 2,500 people over the coming months.
  • Addus HomeCare is hiring people for 2,400 open roles.
  • CommonSpirit Health is hiring for more than 2,200 positions.
  • Mercy is seeking to hire more than 2,000 co-workers for essential health care roles.
  • Fidelity Investments plans to hire 2,000 people to fill roles, including financial consultants, licensed representatives and customer service representatives.
  • Salesforce is hiring for more than 2,000 positions.
  • Love’s Travel Centers and Country Stores is hiring more than 2,000 people to meet demand.
  • IQVIA is hiring for more than 2,000 roles.
  • Takeda, a large pharmaceutical company, is hiring for 2,000 positions.
  • Mercy Health is hiring nearly 1,900 people for open positions.
  • L3 Harris is hiring more than 1,800 people for open roles.
  • BAYADA Home Health Care is hiring more than 1,5000 people.
  • Trillium Health Partners are hiring 1,500 people for open positions.
  • Capital One is hiring for more than 1,300 roles across the U.S.
  • UCHealth is hiring people to fill more than 1,200 positions.
  • Bon Secours is hiring nearly 1,100 people for open positions.
  • Aveanna Healthcare is hiring more than 1,000 people for open roles.
  • Pruitt Health is hiring people for more than 1,000 roles.
  • Parsons Corporation is hiring more than 1,000 people for open positions.
  • Tetra Tech is hiring people in North America for 1,000 roles.
  • Better.com is hiring 1,000 employees — with a focus on hospitality employees.
  • Success Academy Charter Schools plan to fill about 1,000 full-time positions in New York City.
  • Publix Super Markets is hiring “thousands” of workers to meet increased demand.
  • Safeway is hiring thousands of workers due to the demand created by the virus.
  • Shipt is hiring “thousands” of people across the country.
  • CHRISTUS Health is hiring more than 1,000 people for open positions.
  • Regions Bank is hiring more than 900 people for open roles.
  • Philips is hiring roughly 900 people for open positions globally.
  • Ball Aerospace is hiring to fill more than 800 positions.
  • Veeva Systems is hiring people for more than 800 positions.
  • Fifth Third Bank is hiring nearly 750 people for open positions.
  • MUFG is hiring 700 people for open positions.
  • KLA is hiring workers for 700 roles.
  • Electronic Arts is hiring people to fill more than 700 roles.
  • Autodesk is looking to hire nearly 700 people for open roles.
  • Apple is hiring people for 600 roles in the U.S.
  • GoHealth is hiring 600 people for open positions.
  • Fortive is hiring 500 people for open roles.
  • New York City is hiring people for 500 non-clinical positions.
  • The CDC Foundation is hiring up to 500 people for open positions.
  • FactSet is hiring people for nearly 500 positions.
  • FirstGroup America is hiring people for 475 jobs.
  • Corizon Health is hiring more than 400 people for open roles.
  • Western Governors University is hiring more than 400 people.
  • Liberty Mutual is looking to hire more than 400 people to fill open roles.
  • DocuSign is hiring people for over 400 positions.
  • CommScope is hiring 400 people for open positions.
  • Fannie Mae is hiring 400 people for open roles.

Other Businesses that are expanding:

  • GHA Technologies
  • Cargill
  • Koch Industries
  • ServiceNow
  • The U.S. Census
  • BJ’s Wholesale Club
  • Blue Apron is looking to hire in New Jersey and California.
  • Land O’Lakes is looking to hire to meet increased demand.
  • Support.com is hiring a for remote positions.

These businesses are essential  retailers or those with strong cloud formats They include drug stores; other “Essential Retailers” (especially those that offer cheap good such as Dollar Tree), and businesses that can conduct all business remotely.

Will these firms continue their growth for the long term, or are they merely meeting new demand generated by the COVID-19 pandemic?  That’s the big question! Let us know your thoughts?  We love hearing from you!

 

 

Notes from the Underground – An Update on How We’re Doing

Are you as sick of washing your hands and your shelter-in-place roommate, husband, family, extended family as I am? I am ready to go ballistic if my husband puts one more item away that I just took out to use! We are all getting on each other’s nerves, and I don’t care how emotionally even you are (I am not!) or how much you promise yourself you will be calm, cool and collected, we are all experiencing cabin-fever and long for the days when we could go into Starbucks to get the morning cup of Joe.

Well, I have no answer for you.  Surprised?  You thought I’d give you four coping strategies.  But I have none. However, I can share some things that work for me.

 

  1. I have found that walking my dog with or without my husband, helps bring me back into the moment.  My dog, however, is tuckered and runs away when I bring out his leash.

 

  1. Playing the guitar and writing music helps. Now that is REALLY challenging when I feel completely uninspired and dried up, creatively speaking. It’s a real chore and maybe I will look back on these works someday, like you did when you wrote a poem when you were stoned and say to yourself, “what was I thinking?!”

 

  1. Writing blogs (which now seem like “Dear Diary” entries) and just simply going about the requisite chores have helped me stay sane.

 

  1. Each evening, making a list of the tasks for the next day. I never thought “order dinner from _____” (insert name of your favorite restaurant) would make it onto a to do list.  Parkinson’s Law (work expands to fill the time available).

 

  1. Also, the new-old sharing/visiting apps, ZOOM or Facetime, or Skype (does anyone use that anymore?) are actually very soothing and helpful. It is uplifting just to hear what my friends and family are experiencing, see their faces, giggle at something not really funny, or just share stories of our days.

We had an online Seder on Sunday, with many of my family members on both coasts, something we couldn’t do before because who travels cross-country for a Seder?  It was wonderful to connect with the extended family, Jewish and gentile, and drink red wine (not Manischewitz, some lovely Santa Rosa Cabernet, because, hey, it’s the local offering)

  1. We are planting our summer vegetables including tomatoes and zucchini. Have I ever done that before? Have we met? No, that’s Charley’s job, ‘cause he is from Indiana.

 

  1. Shopping online for spring and summer dresses. That might just be me, probably doesn’t help most people.  But I’ve gotten some really great stuff that fits perfectly, which doesn’t happen very often!  My favorite website for this is VICI.com.  Really airy, adorable comfortable dresses.  Retail is my vocation and avocation.

So that’s it for now.  Let us know how you are coping. Sharing is caring in this new world!  I feel better already!

What Will the World Look like in 2025? Five Things to Know for the Future

 

It’s a question on everyone’s mind.  In times of uncertainty, we look to the past, we look to the future, because we just can’t understand what’s going on right now!

In my world (and probably yours), I am working digitally.  That’s nothing new for me.  But right now, I have a profound sense of loneliness.  I miss the sights and sounds of movies, shopping, visiting with my grandkids, even going to doctor’s appointments!  I miss the gym (well maybe not too much) and I miss going out to dinner!!

In these quiet moments, I’ve been thinking about how our world will change in the next five years.  Here are five of my predictions about what we will be doing and how we will be doing it in 2025.

  1. People have short memories. That’s a good thing.  If it were not so, no one would ever have a second child!  One of my major prognostications is that the gathering spots all over the nation will be teeming with people and activity.  But it will be different.  Visitors will “keep their distance”, be more polite, and leave space for their fellows both in front and back.  This new behavior will change necessary planning factors for public assembly.  Our current “order-of-magnitude” space requirements for various entertainment and attraction venues – theme parks, movies, museums, convention/conference centers and retail spaces – are all planned this way.  We will need new numbers, and that will put pressure on the size of many of our social institutions and facilities.  This will make them bigger, and thus likely more expensive to build.

 

  1. Consumers will pivot spending from big ticket items to more affordable choices.  Theme parks and cinemas are considered recession-proof.  That’s not true, but they are much more sustainable than expensive cars, hotels, high-priced vacations and restaurants during and after a recession.

As a corollary, Millennials who are the darlings of advertisers and the future of our country’s spending, will keep on the same consumption track, preferring experiences to things. But the experiences will be closer to home and without as much adventure as before.

These Millennial consumers are:

    •  Born between 1980 – 1994
    • Number 72 Million
    • Ages: 25-39
    • Forming Families Now
    • 29% of Adults in the U.S.
    • Ethnically Diverse
    • Tech Savvy
    • Multi-Taskers
    • Prefer Experiences to Things (So important to keep in mind for retailers!)
    • Prefer Health to Wealth
    • Prefer Mobile/Digital Communication
    • Responsible for $14 billion in consumption expenditure

More fascinating though is the amount spent by Generation X, those consumers born from 1965 to 1980, and aged 40 to 55.  These are the most prolific spenders, accounting for $24 billion in annual expenditure.  Why we aren’t planning for and paying more attention to these mid-life consumers is beyond my understanding!  (In fact, a comparison of the average annual expenditure on Entertainment by cohort shows GenXers spending $3,231 per household, followed by Boomers at $3,286 per household and finally the younger Millennial Generation at $2,186 per household.  Average for the nation is about $2,800.)

These expenditures will likely be at the same in 2025 as they are today.  But smart owners and developers will target the groups that spend the most.

  1. New entertainment-infused projects that continue planning and development during this relatively short period of confinement will come out on top. These projects will be first to market.  If planners/owners develop well thought out, well designed, well executed projects with rational business plans, they will reap the benefits of a surge in demand immediately following the downturn and thereafter.

 

  1. Cultural entities such as museums and live theaters will present content that is relevant, easily understood and fundable. They will likely lag behind the uptick in commercial entertainment activity.  This is because spending for nonprofit activities are seen as more discretionary than other forms of entertainment.  In fact, for the past 20 years, expenditures on cultural attractions have been slipping. Why?  Baby Boomer parents did not do a good job of educating their children on the value of theater and art.  That’s the number one factor in propensity to spend on the arts:  exposure as a child.  Our institutions will reflect the society and cultural needs of a diverse population.  Many of our older institutions were born in a homogeneous America that no longer exists.

 

  1. We will return to a simpler time, albeit with sophisticated tech all around us. Everything old will become new. Consumption of just plain fun with some silliness will be the norm!

While living abroad for a year, I experienced this uncomplicated world that offered          simpler and enduring fun.

I went to the mountains with my friends:

I attended Oktoberfest in Munich:

I attended  opera at La Scala and the Teatro dell’Opera di Firenze. I went to formal            dances:

And I lightened up, became a kid again, upped my joie de vivre:

What are your thoughts about the world after Covid-19?  Write us and let us know.  We want to keep connecting with our friends during this time.

Young Adults

OUR MILLENNIALS

Some say Gen Y, or Millennials, are a lazy, over-parented, indulged cohort.  Being the mother of two Millennials, both parents, home-owners and extremely responsible young men, I tended to strongly disagree.  Are you sensing a “but” here?

I wanted to see if this is true statistically.  So I embarked on a study of current census data, and to my surprise and delight, the United States Census had already done this for me!  What I found is that there is striking statistical support for some of these beliefs.

Below is a summary table of some of the information collected and collated by the government.  What is most illuminating is that almost one third of this cohort lives with their parents, while only one quarter did a quarter century ago.  A huge number live in poverty, more than 13.5 million, while only 9.5  million lived under the same conditions in 1990.  This is not good news!

Young Adults Table

In 1990, 15% spoke a language other than English at home.  Now about one in four are brought up in a household in which English may not be spoken at home.  What we all know is true, these young people are 43% “minority,” whereas only 27% were in the “minority” in 1990.  This is a positive in our country, since we are all “minorities,” and we are all immigrants, but classifications have changed since we emigrated from Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and other continents.

One great finding is that 22% have earned a Bachelor’s Degree or higher, while only 17% had this level of advanced education in 1990. And remember, many of these people are on their way to earning a Bachelor’s degree because they are still in college.

Analyzing these data in graphic form illuminates these findings.

1.  Median earnings are waaaay down in the past quarter century!

Median Earnings.JPG

2.  This population segment is highly diverse.

Millenials Figure 2

3.  Asian Americans show about 60% of this cohort in college, while Blacks and Hispanics show increases in student enrollment, making up 30% of each of their population bases in this age range.

Millenials Figure 7

4.  We need more Millennials in the STEM fields!

Millenials Figure 8

5.  Student debt is a big problem for our college students.

Millenials Figure 9

6.  About half of college students are working, a bit less than in 1990 when that total was about 60%.

Millenials Figure 12

7.   Women are out-pacing men in Bachelor’s Degrees conferred and with some Graduate School.  It has been this way since 1994!

Millenials Figure 22

8.  As always, with this generation, the higher the level of education, the higher the average household income.

Millenials Figure 18

9.  And for older Millennials, long unemployment as a percentage of total unemployment is higher than ever, up from 15% in 1977 to over 40% in 2014.

Millenials Figure 21

10.  Millennials are marrying older.

Millenials Figure 26

11.  Educated Millennials are having kids later.

Millenials Figure 28

12.  And almost a third still live with parents.

Millenials Figure 29

My conclusions from these data is that Millennial issues stem more from  the Great Recession, and the fact that they are dogged by student debt rather than their lack of ambition.  They entered the workforce at a terrible economic point in our history.  As REAL wages increase, and the economy improves, they will quickly be absorbed into the grown-up population.

Tell me what you think.  I always love hearing from our readers!

THE POWER OF GLOBAL GENDER PARITY

I am just back from ICSC.  Besides much discussion of the demise or denial of the demise of  bricks and mortar shopping opportunities, I saw a presentation about this “Gender Parity” study completed by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).  Take a look!

Click Picture to Download Report

“Narrowing the global gender gap in work would not only be equitable in the broadest sense but could double the contribution of women to global GDP growth between 2014 and 2025. Delivering that impact, however, will require tackling gender equality in society.

“MGI has mapped 15 gender equality indicators for 95 countries and finds that 40 of them have high or extremely high levels of gender inequality on at least half of the indicators. The indicators fall into four categories: equality in work, essential services and enablers of economic opportunity, legal protection and political voice, and physical security and autonomy.  We consider a “full-potential” scenario in which women participate in the economy identically to men, and find that it would add up to $28 trillion, or 26 percent, to annual global GDP in 2025 compared with a business-as-usual scenario. This impact is roughly equivalent to the size of the combined US and Chinese economies today. We also analyzed an alternative “best-in-region” scenario in which all countries match the rate of improvement of the best-performing country in their region. This would add as much as $12 trillion in annual 2025 GDP, equivalent in size to the current GDP of Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom combined, or twice the likely growth in global GDP contributed by female workers between 2014 and 2025 in a business-as-usual scenario.

“Both advanced and developing countries stand to gain. In 46 of the 95 countries analyzed, the best in-region outcome could increase annual GDP in 2025 by more than 10 percent over the business as-usual case, with the highest relative boost in India and Latin America.

“MGI’s new Gender Parity Score, or GPS, measures the distance each country has traveled toward gender parity, which is set at 1.00. The regional GPS is lowest in South Asia (excluding India) at 0.44 and highest in North America and Oceania at 0.74. Using the GPS, MGI has established a strong link between gender equality in society, attitudes and beliefs about the role of women, and gender equality in work. The latter is not achievable without the former two elements. We found virtually no countries with high gender equality in society but low gender equality in work. Economic development enables countries to close gender gaps, but progress in four areas in particular— education level, financial and digital inclusion, legal protection, and unpaid care work—could help accelerate progress.

“MGI has identified ten “impact zones” (issue-region combinations) where effective action would move more than 75 percent of women affected by gender inequality globally closer to parity. The global impact zones are blocked economic potential, time spent in unpaid care work, fewer legal rights, political underrepresentation, and violence against women, globally pervasive issues. The regional impact zones are low labor-force participation in quality jobs, low maternal and reproductive health, unequal education levels, financial and digital exclusion, and girl-child vulnerability, concentrated in certain regions of the world.

“Six types of intervention are necessary to bridge the gender gap: financial incentives and support; technology and infrastructure; the creation of economic opportunity; capability building; advocacy and shaping attitudes; and laws, policies, and regulations. We identify some 75 potential interventions that could be evaluated and tailored to suit the social and economic context of each impact zone and country.

“Tackling gender inequality will require change within businesses as well as new coalitions. The private sector will need to play a more active role in concert with governments and non-governmental organizations—and companies could benefit both directly and indirectly by taking action.”

http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/how-advancing-womens-equality-can-add-12-trillion-to-global-growth

 

The Best Job I Ever Had

Oscar Museum 2

Ten years ago, in about 2004, I got a call from a prospective client, a newly hired director of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences museum project, asking if I would be interested in conducting some market research for a new attraction/museum themed on the Academy Awards.

Would I Ever!!!

I had been the one lucky enough to do the work for the Dolby Theater at Hollywood & Highland where the ceremony takes place, so it seemed a good fit and logical that I continue on to do the museum feasibility.  But my joy, my heart, for Hollywood, no one knew that!

No One Had Ever Known That:

  • My family had always been in the entertainment business, with my father involved on the business side, having been a pioneer in the cable television industry.
  • My aunt always working for this or that movie star as an executive assistant.
  • I was lucky enough to visit the back-lot of 20th Century Fox before it was Century City!
  • I spent countless hours watching movies being filmed, then sitting in theaters watching them roll by me on the big screen.

Would I be interested?  Heck, yea!!

Since that time, I have been the consultant called upon to do the background market research, analysis and financial projections for the site selection, sizing and operation of museum.

I learned a thing or two during those years like:

  • I gained a deep knowledge of large museums and what keeps them thriving.
  • How an endowment can shrink during a deflation.
  • Money earmarked to never-be-touched has a way of disappearing in hard times.
  • I learned about the conundrum of keeping things fresh so that resident visitors will keep returning, time and again.

I am thankful that my job always changes and that I always learn, no matter the engagement.

Picture of Oscar 2Over the years, we have wrestled with all the issues associated with new development including disagreements about what it should look like, what its mission should be, where it should be sited, who is its targeted audience (please, don’t say everyone!), and what’s the best way to keep the project on-time and on-budget.  To be clear, these issues are complex and are made more difficult when there are many masters to serve.  Still, when the project is to reflect the points of view, hopes, dreams, and legacies of America’s most important cultural export, (which I believe is cinema) there must be the most careful consideration to each one.

This was my best job ever.  Write and tell me about yours in the comments below.