The Best Job I Ever Had

                

Yesterday on the ABC television network, the entire day was devoted to programming of the Academy Awards.  This is always one of the most coveted days of the year for me, having grown up in the entertainment business and living in Beverly Hills.  I love the stories and the glitz and glamour.  The dresses!!  The hair, the make-up, the shoes! 

This year is especially exciting since the Academy Museum is opening, honoring the legend and legacy of Hollywood films.  I am completely humbled and honored to have conducted the market and financial feasibility study for the museum, as it underwent many twists and turns on its road to being born.  This is a re-blog of an article I wrote in 2018 and I think it is appropriate today.

“About 16 years ago, I got a call from a perspective client, a newly hired director from the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, asking if I would be interested in conducting some market research for a new attraction/museum themed on the Academy Awards.  Would I?!?!  I had been the one lucky enough to do the work for the Dolby Theater at Hollywood & Highland where the ceremony takes place, so it seemed a good fit and logical that I continue on to do the museum feasibility.  But my joy, my heart, for Hollywood, no one knew that!  My family had always been in the entertainment business, with my father tangentially involved on the business side, having been a pioneer in the cable television industry.   And my aunt was always working for this or that movie star as an executive assistant.  I was lucky enough to visit the backlot of 20^th Century Fox before it was Century City!  I spent countless hours watching movies being filmed, then sitting in theaters watching them roll by me on the big screen. 

Would I be interested?  Heck, yea!!

Since that time, I have been the consultant called upon to do the background market research, analysis and financial projections for the site selection, sizing and operation of museum.  I learned a thing or two during those years.  I gained a deep knowledge of large museums and what keeps them thriving; I learned how an endowment can shrink during a deflation; I learned that money earmarked to never-be-touched has a way of disappearing in hard times.  And I learned about the conundrum of keeping things fresh so that resident visitors will keep returning time and again.  I am thankful that my job always changes and that I always learn, no matter the engagement.

Over the years, we have wrestled with all the issues associated with new development including disagreements about what it should look like, what its mission should be, where it should be sited, who is its targeted audience (please don’t say everyone!), and what’s the best way to keep the project on-time and on-budget.  To be clear, these issues are complex and are made more difficult when there are many masters to serve.  Still, when the project is to reflect the points of view, hopes, dreams, and legacies of America’s most important cultural export, cinema, careful consideration must be given to each one. “

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THE POWER OF GLOBAL GENDER PARITY

I am just back from ICSC.  Besides much discussion of the demise or denial of the demise of  bricks and mortar shopping opportunities, I saw a presentation about this “Gender Parity” study completed by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).  Take a look!

Click Picture to Download Report

“Narrowing the global gender gap in work would not only be equitable in the broadest sense but could double the contribution of women to global GDP growth between 2014 and 2025. Delivering that impact, however, will require tackling gender equality in society.

“MGI has mapped 15 gender equality indicators for 95 countries and finds that 40 of them have high or extremely high levels of gender inequality on at least half of the indicators. The indicators fall into four categories: equality in work, essential services and enablers of economic opportunity, legal protection and political voice, and physical security and autonomy.  We consider a “full-potential” scenario in which women participate in the economy identically to men, and find that it would add up to $28 trillion, or 26 percent, to annual global GDP in 2025 compared with a business-as-usual scenario. This impact is roughly equivalent to the size of the combined US and Chinese economies today. We also analyzed an alternative “best-in-region” scenario in which all countries match the rate of improvement of the best-performing country in their region. This would add as much as $12 trillion in annual 2025 GDP, equivalent in size to the current GDP of Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom combined, or twice the likely growth in global GDP contributed by female workers between 2014 and 2025 in a business-as-usual scenario.

“Both advanced and developing countries stand to gain. In 46 of the 95 countries analyzed, the best in-region outcome could increase annual GDP in 2025 by more than 10 percent over the business as-usual case, with the highest relative boost in India and Latin America.

“MGI’s new Gender Parity Score, or GPS, measures the distance each country has traveled toward gender parity, which is set at 1.00. The regional GPS is lowest in South Asia (excluding India) at 0.44 and highest in North America and Oceania at 0.74. Using the GPS, MGI has established a strong link between gender equality in society, attitudes and beliefs about the role of women, and gender equality in work. The latter is not achievable without the former two elements. We found virtually no countries with high gender equality in society but low gender equality in work. Economic development enables countries to close gender gaps, but progress in four areas in particular— education level, financial and digital inclusion, legal protection, and unpaid care work—could help accelerate progress.

“MGI has identified ten “impact zones” (issue-region combinations) where effective action would move more than 75 percent of women affected by gender inequality globally closer to parity. The global impact zones are blocked economic potential, time spent in unpaid care work, fewer legal rights, political underrepresentation, and violence against women, globally pervasive issues. The regional impact zones are low labor-force participation in quality jobs, low maternal and reproductive health, unequal education levels, financial and digital exclusion, and girl-child vulnerability, concentrated in certain regions of the world.

“Six types of intervention are necessary to bridge the gender gap: financial incentives and support; technology and infrastructure; the creation of economic opportunity; capability building; advocacy and shaping attitudes; and laws, policies, and regulations. We identify some 75 potential interventions that could be evaluated and tailored to suit the social and economic context of each impact zone and country.

“Tackling gender inequality will require change within businesses as well as new coalitions. The private sector will need to play a more active role in concert with governments and non-governmental organizations—and companies could benefit both directly and indirectly by taking action.”

http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/how-advancing-womens-equality-can-add-12-trillion-to-global-growth

 

WHICH GENERATION TO TARGET?

We are all fans of the newest consumers to come of age, the Millennials. These young adults, who are now aged 19 to 33 and number almost 70 million, are the darlings of the marketing world. But in their rush to capture the hearts and minds of these young consumers, who are now forming their first real households, many brands are forgetting about the other generations.

To help our colleagues drive sales to adults in various life stages, we created an easy chart to start the conversation. A discussion of these groups is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims they are doing it.

Generational Market Segments

· Swing and World II Born between 1909-1945 33.7 Million 69 or Older 14% of Adults Health Care Consumers “Grandchildren” Spending Delayed Gratification Moderation Discipline

· Baby Boomers Born between 1946 – 1964 74.9 Million Ages: 50 – 68 32% of Adults Multi-generational Consumers Drivers of Growth in Leisure/Hospitality Still Individualistic and “Rebels” Starting to think about retirement Forever Young 45 Million Grandparents

· Gen X Born between 1965 – 1980 60.4 Million Ages: 34 – 49 25% of Adults Boomer Parents Divorced Parents Insecure Practical in Consumption Diversity Responsible Use Web Extensively

· Gen Y / Millennials Born between 1981 – 1995 67.9 Million Ages: 19 – 33 29% of Adults Ethnically Diverse Tech Savvy Multi-Tasker Need Lots of Input Prefer Health to Wealth Prefer Mobile Communication Omnicultural

· Gen Z Born between 1996 – 2010 46 Million Ages: 5 – 18 Structured Schedules Over Managed Info in Short Grabs Multi-Tasker Tech Savvy/Omnicultural The “I” Generation

Source: JB Research Company

(For a Printable Chart, Click Here.) 

Each generation has a special way it likes to be approached, and each responds differently to messaging. For example, Boomers still shop in department stores, although certainly not as much as when the oldest boomers, now 69, were kids. Gen Y rarely shops in department stores unless it is one of the “cool” ones, which include Nordstrom’s or Barney’s. Or when they are shopping for their parents’ Christmas gifts, so they can be easily returned to a convenient location.

In terms of amount spend per visit to the mall and department store, the 45-54 age group cuts across two generations, Gen X and Baby Boomers. Department store spending, however, is highest among Boomers, while all other spending is highest again across Gen Y and Boomers. Teenagers visit the mall most frequently, but understandably, do not spend much per visit.

In terms of wealth, an interesting analysis indicates that Gen X, a sector largely ignored by great brands, is a real contender when it comes to income, net worth and wealth. The difference between income and wealth is that income is what you earn every year, and wealth is the totality of your assets minus your liabilities. According to the United States Department of the Census Current Population Survey, net worth and total income is as follows in 2013:

In terms of net wealth, Baby Boomers hold the highest percentage of net worth dollars at 34% and the highest share of total income dollars, at 39%. The second highest is held by Gen –X at 29% of net worth dollars and 31% of total income dollars. Millennials hold 21% of net worth, and about 18% of total income dollars. Again, markets with the most money are Boomers and Gen-X.  But that is because Gen Y is young, and on their way to being the consumer heavyweight in the next 20 years.

Some salient characteristics of each of the largest buying generations, Boomers and Gen-X include the following:

.  Gen- Xers have money! They make up 25 % of all adults, but hold 29% of all net worth and 31% of all annual income earned. Half of them want to provide for their kids’ college, and almost all want to save for retirement. Two thirds plan on traveling for pleasure in the next year, and half will buy one or more luxuries.

· Boomers on the other hand, buy things for themselves and their grandkids. They are omnichannel and know their way around the Internet of Things. They expect hype in their advertising because they invented it (Mad Men, anyone?) They are early adopters of smart medical devices and are very critical about experiential retail, again because they invented it.

While we’re at it, here are some characteristic of Gen Y and Gen Z.  Gen Y is completely omnichannel, and have said that they will pay for responsible products, although this has not yet been proven in the market. They will be early adopters of smart wearables, especially sport gear such as watches. They want a seamless shopping experience and they DO NOT WANT HYPE. Because of all the information thrown at them by their various smart devises, they want their lives simplified, so they have invented “curated” everything from experiences, to vacations, to cooking, shopping, to putting together furniture, to decluttering their lives. Think  YouTube, Yelp, H&M and Zara (fast fashion), shopping sites, and Pinterest. Because there are so many of them, and because they are just starting to become a force as couples, they are the generation that will take over next.

Gen Z is a whole other puzzle. They are not old enough to have much money of their own, but they will in the next ten years. They are overscheduled, but they are completely omnichanneled, cutting across every platform of technology. They are extremely entrepreneurial and want to be heard. They also want to try out products before they buy. In order to appeal to them now, you have to continually innovate and evolve digitally because they live on their devices.

The world is complicated today and is becoming more complicated as we evolve and innovate with our shopping methods and choices. The Internet of Things, such as magic RFID tags, augmented reality, delivery drones, curated experiences, wearable technology and life hacking are among the many new experiences we must excel at and then change our products and communication as they change. It is a brave new world!

Entertainment Evolution Experience

Happy New Year Friends!

I can’t believe so much time has passed since I last wrote.  We have been very busy and had a lovely holiday.  Hope all is well with you and your family.

We are reminding you to come and join us at an exceptional conference “Entertainment Evolution Experience” to be held February 18th and 19th at LA Live! in Los Angeles.  I will be speaking on a panel entitled, “Open Air Projects – Pushing the Envelope,” where we will discuss, among other things, the need for human contact and fresh air!

We would be thrilled to see you there!

Here are the details:

Shopping Center Business and InterFace Conference Group are pleased to highlight the following panel for the Entertainment Experience Evolution Conference, February 18-19, 2015 at LA Live in Los Angeles. The multi-day conference will focus on what developers, owners, restaurants, retailers, cinemas, designers and entertainment venues are doing to evolve the consumer experience and create vibrant places to spend time.

Featured Panel:

Open Air Projects –
Pushing the Envelope

Arguably the most active type of multi-tenant retail, open-air centers have grown beyond service retail to become true community environments. Find out how amenities, restaurants, landscaping, hardscaping, and placemaking are changing open-air retail. See case studies from developers and architects on the transformation of open-air centers, from regional lifestyle centers to power centers to small community centers.

For a complete agenda, click here.

To reserve your spot today, click here.

Understanding Your Market – By the Numbers

Analyzing demographics and psychographics is an incredibly useful tool to assist in every aspect of feasibility testing, new product development, and simple site selection.  The process used to be cumbersome, and not for sissies!  But since the advent of MapPoint, almost anyone can do a simple version of a demographic exercise.

The Beneficial Business Features of MapPoint:

• MapPoint has an incredibly easy demographic feature.  Choose up to 16 different demographic points at once – such as population, income, household size, and age – and  then instantly  MapPoint arrays these features by state, county, city, MSA, zip code, or even Census tract.
• A shaded map will show the various areas by any single demographic chosen – such as number of businesses per zip code, teenagers in a particular census tract, or household expenditure patterns for any city in the United States.
• Once the demographic factor is selected and mapped,  a radius of any number of miles around a site can be created and then instantly exported to an Excel Sheet.  With the numbers in Excel, manipulating data to get a clearer snapshot of the type of customers  in or around the site is simple.
• Radii can be adjusted, expanded or a second radius created and then re-exported  for a new area into another Excel Sheet.  By simply copying and pasting new numbers into the first Excel sheet and repeating for other locations or radii, an instant comparison of multiple locations is created.
• MapPoint can also find and map competitors.  The map will not only list a fairly accurate number of competitors within a preselected distance from your business, but it will also pinpoint the exact distance of a business from your site, as well as their address and phone number.
• You can import data from an Excel Sheet, and thus map multiple addresses.  This is an ideal tool  to determine where the customers on a  mailing lists are actually located.
• Another useful feature in MapPoint indicates expenditure per household  for various products such as electronics, books, food, etc.   This information can also be narrowed to a particular radius and census tract, thus allowing a better picture of how much money people in your area spend in a year on your products.
• Plus, on top of all that, MapPoint offers a GPS tool, and driving directions can be created based on shortest distances, preselected locations, and fastest routes.  It can also calculate the cost of gas required to visit those locations.

BELOW IS A MAPPOINT INCOME DIAGRAM FOR A LOCATION IN GLENDALE

Glendale Income Map

Very simple.  But you might have some questions.  If you do, call or email me. (jill@jbresearchco.com, 805-640-1060)  I’ve been doing this for 20+ years, with or without MapPoint!

Revealing National Retail Trends

Recently, I participated in a round table discussion with other retail experts in Southern California.  Shopping Center Business just published the following article about that discussion entitled “Revealing National Trends.”

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Feature Article, May 2010 – Shopping Center Business

“Revealing National Trends”

Southern California Roundtable leads to discussion of trends that can be applied nationally.
Roundtable moderated by Jerrold France and Randall Shearin

Shopping Center Business held a retail roundtable hosted by Holland & Knight at the City Club on Bunker Hill in Los Angeles.

Shopping Center Business recently held a retail roundtable in Los Angeles, hosted by the law firm of Holland & Knight at the City Club on Bunker Hill. Attendees of the roundtable were Pat Donahue, Donahue Schriber; Sandy Sigal, Newmark Merrill; Jill Bensley, JB Research Co.; Jeff Kreshek, CIM Group; Bill Stone, Excel Realty; Jeff Green, Jeff Green Partners; Mark Schurgin, The Festival Companies; Greg Lyon, Nadel Architects; Julie Brinkerhoff-Jacobs, Lifescapes International; Tamsen Plume, Holland & Knight; Karl Lott, Holland & Knight; and Susan Booth, Holland & Knight.

SCB: Southern California is an important market as a lot of retail trends are created here. What do you get as an overall sense of the market here?

Donahue

Donahue: We are better off than we were a year ago. There were relatively no transactions last year. Things are starting to thaw out. We have exposure to four states and Southern California held up much better than Northern California, Arizona, Nevada and Oregon. Our occupancy in Southern California is even with a year ago, where our portfolio is off 400 basis points. Our rents in Southern California year over year are flat to plus two, versus a portfolio that was negative 11. Out of our entire portfolio, 80 percent is in California.

Stone: Our concentration is in the Southeast [United States]. The Southeast has been better; we have a number of centers there at 100 percent occupancy. When you go to the centers, not only are the parking lots full, but there restaurants are full. There are not as many people shopping out west. The whole country has been waiting for the other shoe to drop. In California, everyone is worried about the state. There has been some hesitation here on the part of people to go out and spend. People are holding their money.

Bensley: I looked at the personal savings rates back to the 1960s. This year, the savings rate is 3.3 percent, and that is down, which is good for the shopping center industry because consumer spending is two-thirds of our economy. Last year, it was about 5 percent. In 1991, during the last recession, the savings rate was at 7 percent. In the 1980s, it was at 10 percent. It just shows you the transition of what we’ve done in taking out money from our homes. That is where all that money came from. It was the spending of cash that was then all lost with the value of our houses.

Donahue: We, as a country, took on more debt in the last 7 years than in the previous 40 years combined.

Bensley: It is astounding. It is bad for retail when people save more, but at some point we have to even out.

Donahue: If we go to what we were doing, we will all be out of business. We have to have a positive savings rate. The idea that you are supposed to live above your means is not good. I’m thrilled we’ve shifted to a positive savings rate. It is going to wreak havoc on our business, there’s no question, but it is going to weed out the people who shouldn’t be in this business. Circuit City, Linens ‘N Things and Mervyn’s only lasted 12 months in the downturn. These aren’t retailers who weathered the storm. They shouldn’t have been in business when they were. This recession is weeding those players out. At the end of the day you will come back with a much stronger economy, a much stronger country, and consumers who are doing the right things. We can’t be leveraging ourselves into this.

(Left to right) Stone, Schurgin and Sigal.

Sigal: A lot of the retail failures were a function of the credit markets shutting themselves off. We are seeing a return of some financing to the marketplace. There are the haves and have nots — there are tenants who have access to the capital markets and the REITs who have access. The have nots are just holding on for dear life. If their debt gets called they are done. California is such a large market, you can’t say ‘California is recovering.’ We have centers in the inner city, denser communities. That customer has continued to visit because there is nowhere else to go. Our tenants are the 99 Cents Only and the discounters. In this kind of environment, their marketplace has grown. They have the base who has no one else to go and they have a new group of shoppers. A lot of people will discover retailers like Walmart, K-Mart and Target, and once they discover it, they will keep going. Our L.A. region has seen no increase in vacancy. We are still at 95 percent. In San Diego, we’ve been affected; we are 400 basis points worse there, just around 90 percent. It is a function of high rents and it is dependent on the housing market. The Colorado market has been our best market. It has been steady…

Click Here to read the rest of the article at Shopping Center Business.